Minister and master strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma—whom many consider to be the power behind the throne of chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal—has cited a single possibility for the BJP-led alliance of Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United Peoples Party Liberal (UPPL): 100+ seats. Sarma’s calculations have rarely gone wrong, even when he was a Congress minister till before the 2016 assembly polls. It’s not for nothing that the BJP’s central leadership has reposed its faith in Sarma. Even if it means dumping the Bodo People’s Front (BPF) ahead of the polls to find a new ally in the UPPL, another party with a Bodo base.

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But the possibility of 100-plus seats is not the real story. The BJP has set the cat among the pigeons by refusing to implicitly name Sonowal as its candidate for the top post. “There is no need to name a CM candidate because we already have a CM. In 2016, we were fighting to win the state for the first time,” says party spokesperson Ritu Baran Sarma. The statement raises more questions than answers. And one of the questions leads directly to minister Sarma. On several occasions in the past, he had asserted that he would not contest the polls. Yet, when the first list was announced, the 52-year-old was named as the BJP candidate for Jalukbari, a constituency straddling large areas of Guwahati. Sarma’s ambition to lead the state is well-known and is said to be a major factor in his leaving the Congress when former chief minister, the late Tarun Gogoi, started projecting his MP-son Gaurav as his successor. This, plus the now-famous episode involving Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s pet dog Pidi.

This is not supposed to be a dog-eat-dog story, but politics has its own funny way of throwing up the unexpected. Even Sarma becoming the CM is not exactly the highlight. After all, most of his die-hard followers see nothing wrong. And even more people across Assam believe that he is the real deal, almost single-handedly taking on the Opposition and dismantling their arguments and bastions. Not to forget the fact that he managed to divert an overwhelming anti-BJP narrative in Assam after the Citizenship (Amendment) Act was enacted, sparking widespread protests and violence across Assam in early 2020. “This election is about what we have done for the state. CAA is done and dusted. The people have seen through the machinations of some people who whipped up passions over the law. It’s not an issue anymore,” Ritu Baran says.

Political analyst Mrinal Talukdar agrees. He believes that more than half of the 9.6 million people who are beneficiaries of various schemes will definitely vote for the BJP-led alliance. Assam has around 23 million voters. “Now add 10 per cent of the non-beneficiaries who will vote for the BJP anyway…Then there is the usual religious polarisation, social engineering and money and manpower for the BJP. I see a bipolar election where the BJP has a strong chance,” he says.

The Congress will certainly disagree. “What development?” Congress parliamentarian Gaurav Gogoi asks. “BJP workers are taking cuts from beneficiaries of the much-touted Orunodoi scheme…ask the people how they are being conned,” alleges Gogoi, who has been campaigning for party candidates across Assam. Under the scheme, the state government transfers Rs 830 a month to bank accounts of 2.2 million families with widows and physically-challenged members. The government recently announced the amount will be increased to Rs 3,000.

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Unlike the BJP, the Congress and other opposition parties believe that CAA is still an emotive issue and it will hurt the ruling alliance. “Most people of Assam see CAA as a betrayal of the BJP’s promise to protect jaati, maati, bheti (ethnicity, land and home). The people gave the BJP a chance and it blew it,” Gogoi says.

But winning the election is not the main plot in the Congress story. First, it will have to convince voters about its alliance with the AIUDF of perfume baron Badaruddin Ajmal, whom Sarma has described as an “enemy of Assam”. To rub it in, the BJP has dubbed the polls a “clash of civilisations”, with Sonowal claiming that “the attack of Mughals” is continuing. A BJP leader said “Mughal” is meant to denote a mindset, not individuals. There are many, mostly from the Assam-ese-speaking populace, who see Ajmal as a benefactor of “illegal migrants”. The fear of Bangladeshis overrunning the state remains as potent as it was decades ago.

The BJP is steering clear of this issue after exploiting the primal fear to the fullest, with then PM candidiate Narendra Modi declaring at a rally in 2014 that “all Bangladeshis will have leave bag and baggage” after the BJP is voted to power at the Centre. It was a promise repeated ahead of the 2016 assembly polls. This time, there is no mention of Bangladeshis, or CAA, or NRC (the national register of citizens). BJP leaders are highlighting these issues in Bengal, though.

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It’s this anger against CAA that the two new parties, Raijor Dal floated by jailed farmers’ leader Akhil Gogoi and the Asom Jatiya Parishad of former AASU leader Lurinjyoti Gogoi, are trying to exploit. Though they have an understanding, both parties are fielding candidates against each other in “friendly contests”. Akhil is in the fray too, having filed his nomination for the Sivasagar seat. Even the Congress and AIUDF will face-off in five seats.

No one is happier than the BJP, with so many parties in the contest. “They will cut their own votes. It’s good for us,” says a senior BJP leader. But a recent opinion poll called a close contest between the BJP and Congress. But stranger things have happened before. And thereby hangs a tale.

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By Anupam Bordoloi in Guwahati