How Is Turkey Involved In Syria As Assad Government Falls?

Large crowds waving Syrian and Turkish flags gathered in the main square of Kilis, a border city in southern Turkey. 

In Hatay province, which also lies on the Syrian frontier, many said it was time to go home after years of living in Turkey, which hosts some 3 million Syrians.

“We are free now, everyone should return to their homeland,” Mahmud Esma told the DHA news agency at the Cilvegozu border gate. 

Turkey, which shares a 911-kilometre-long frontier with Syria, has been a main backer of opposition groups aiming to topple Assad since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011.

While Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of any involvement, observers believe that the offensive, which appears to be aligned with Turkey's long-time goals, could not have gone ahead without Ankara's consent.

It has allowed Turkey, through its Syrian proxy the Syrian National Army, to push back against Kurdish forces in Syria allied to its sworn enemy, the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.

The jihadi group that spearheaded the 10-day march on Damascus, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is listed as a terrorist organisation by Ankara. However, Turkey has operated alongside it for years in northern Syria and is believed to exert significant influence over the group.

Here's a look at Turkey's position, how Assad's removal could serve the country's objectives and possible risks ahead:

Ties With Syria

Turkey has stated its support for Syria's territorial integrity: the last thing it wants is a Kurdish-controlled autonomous region on its border or a fresh exodus of refugees created by instability.

Ankara has conducted several incursions into Syria since 2016 with the aim of pushing back the Islamic State group or Kurdish militants and creating a buffer zone along its border, and now controls a stretch of territory in northern Syria.

Turkey was previously involved in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between the regime and insurgents, including holding talks with Assad's main supporters, Russia and Iran.

Recently Ankara sought a reconciliation with Assad in order to mitigate the threat to Turkey from Kurdish militias and ensure the safe return of refugees. Assad rebuffed Turkey's overtures.

Where Turkey Stands

Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of involvement in the anti-government offensive, stating opposition to developments that increase instability in the region.

“All statements that claim Turkey provoked or that Turkey supported this are untrue. They are all lies,” Omer Celik, spokesman for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling party, said this week.

Analysts say, however, that the rebel offensive would have been impossible without a green light from Turkey.

Turkish officials say Ankara stalled the offensive for months. Opposition forces finally went ahead with the assault after the Syrian government attacked opposition-held areas, violating agreements between Russia, Iran and Turkey to de-escalate the conflict.

The offensive was initially meant to be limited, the officials said, but expanded after Syrian government forces began retreating from their positions.

Speaking in Qatar on Sunday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey “attaches great importance for the national unity, stability, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria and the well-being of the Syrian people.

“Thereby millions of Syrians who were forced to leave their homes can return to their land.”

Risks Ahead

The Syrian government's fall could pose several risks to Turkey, including sending a new wave of refugees toward the Turkish border if chaos ensues.

Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, said that first and foremost Turkey wants a stable Syria.

“The first risk that Turkey would want to avoid that all cost is the territorial disintegration of Syria, with different power structures vying to obtain autonomy on their territory,” he said, highlighting the PKK-linked Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units, the YPG, in northeast Syria.

A stable period of transition would allow Turkey to channel economic aid to Syria to create the conditions for the return of refugees, Ulgen added.

Some analysts have suggested that the rebel offensive could stoke tensions with Syria's backers, Iran and Russia. Turkey, a NATO member, has sought to balance close relations with both Ukraine and Russia in the face of Moscow's full-scale invasion of its neighbour. 

Ulgen noted that Russia has not accused Turkey of stoking the insurgents' advance. He said this was due in part to not wanting Turkey to “switch to become more anti-Russia” in its stance on the war in Ukraine.

“I don't think that this creates a breaking point in Turkey-Russian relations.”

Alignment Of Goals

The developments have raised hopes that Turkey may achieve its strategic objectives in Syria, including securing its southern borders and facilitating the safe return of Syrian refugees.

Since 2022, Turkey has sought to normalise relations with Syria. However, Assad insisted on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria, while Turkey maintains it cannot withdraw as long as threats from Kurdish militias persist.

Whether a change of rule in Syria will allow Turkey to push the YPG away from its borders remains to be seen. HTS has reportedly developed good ties with the YPG, which heads the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Turkey views the YPG as a terrorist organisation despite its alliance with the US against the Islamic State group.

Calling for the preservation of Syria's territorial integrity, Fidan said Turkey was being “watchful” to “make sure that terrorist organisations, especially Daesh and PKK, are not taking advantage of the situation.” He was referring to the Islamic State group and the YPG.

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army expelled the YPG from Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo, during the latest advance. On Sunday, Turkish security officials said it had seized control of most of the Kurdish-held city of Manbij.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, noted that Turkey would expect to have a significant say in the new-look Syria.

“There will be negotiations that will decide the future of Syria,” he said. “Turkey will be influential but so will the United States and so will the Middle Eastern countries that will finance the rebuilding of Syria.”

Gonul Tol, director of the US-based Middle East Institutes' Turkish Programme, noted that Turkey may not be able to control the HTS as it pursues its own interests. “HTS are a wild card. Does Turkey really want a jihadist organisation to be running a neighbouring country?” she said.